Analysts, traders and crypto enthusiasts all over the globe are cheering on bitcoin as it looks to overcome $9,000. But is this the start of something bigger? Is bitcoin finally pricing in the next halving – or halvening, as some may call it?
The sentiment inside the cryptocurrency community is reaching epidemic proportions. All over Crypto Twitter, Vegatta memes are being pulled out and readied for painfully derivative tweets. Yep, bitcoin is almost over $9,000 again.
It’s hard not to get swept up in the tide bullishness of late. In the mere 17 days since 2020 sprang forth, BTC has posted a 25% gain.
But with the meme-worthy psychological level of $9,000 (almost) conquered, what could be next?
Fortunately, we don’t have to guess for ourselves. A score of Crypto Twitters finest have crawled out of there respective hideaways, donned their pseudonymous personas, and provided a few estimations concerning bitcoin’s next move.
The Pre-Halving Pre-Pump
First and foremost is a particularly bullish view from the prominent trader, Crypto Michael.
Michael notes that the charts are starting to resemble the anticipatory period before bitcoin’s second halving back on July 9, 2016. Between January and July 2016 volatility in the altcoin market reached fever pitch – adding $1.6 billion to its overall market cap. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remained reasonably subdued. That is until a 70% parabolic advance took the coin flying – just two months prior to its block reward halving.
In the analyst’s opinion, if BTC can mimic its 2016 event, a price point of $18,000 could be easily attainable.
Though – as Cat Stevens once crooned – the first cut is the deepest.
Bitcoin’s preeminent block halving in November 2012 saw a mind-blowing 1,660% advance as it headed from a trivial $12 to $213 within four months.
While subsequent halvings have been undeniable catalysts for growth, some believe their impact on the market may be stalling.
Coinshares CSO Meltem Demirors claims that an increase in crypto derivative offerings is dampening the influence of the halvening’s supply and demand principles.
1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving.
for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.
— Meltem Demirors (@Melt_Dem) December 24, 2019
As more avenues for speculation open up, the less desire there is from institutional investors to buy BTC outright.
Sky’s The Limit Beyond $9K
Putting the halving firmly to one side, analysts still remain confident that a break beyond $9,000 could provide a lot of upside. One crypto analyst, known as Galaxy, foresees a 1,000% increase as long as bitcoin can split away from four figures.
Breaking the green line will be what triggers the next parabolic movement that will take us to $100K minimum.
Save this picture.
— Galaxy (@galaxyBTC) January 15, 2020
Whether this is genuine, or merely the result of a hopium overdose, remains to be seen. Still, it appears the analyst wasn’t alone in their thinking. Last week—following bitcoin’s reprisals into $8,000 territory—one of Galaxy’s fellow pseudonymous traders, Bitcoin Macro, simply tweeted:
Bitcoin is gonna break $100k in the next 24 months, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
While the weirdly threatening prediction provided a hefty dose of optimism, there really wasn’t much substance to it.
Then again, anything is possible, especially in the crypto markets. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen 1,000%-plus gains in such a short period.
Looking to provide a little more depth was trader and analyst, Josh Rager. Giving a nod to fixed range volume profiles, Rager highlighted the significance of point of control (POC) – a price level where most volumes were traded.
According to the analyst, various POCs have provided critical support for BTC in the past. Rager submits that the 2019 POC will likely hold support at around $10,100—giving bitcoin a leg up to a “new ATH.”
Fixed range Volume Profile shows the importance of Point of Control (POC) for a major range to act as support
2018 POC held as support at $6,400s
IMO, we should see the 2019 POC act as support at $10,100
= Price should stay above $10,100 on its way to new ATH pic.twitter.com/VkpUYqTYrO
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) January 17, 2020
Whether any of these predictions will prevail is – as ever – completely unknown. Still, if past price performance is anything to go by, bitcoin fetching new all-time high is the least we can expect.